Well at least MOST of my predictions are coming true…
As I concluded last week’s edition, I gave some thoughts on the coming weekend. I said, regarding The Bourne Legacy, “While I don’t think that it will meet the openings of the second or third films in the series ($52 million and $69 million respectively) I think it should get to $40 million…”
By the hair on my chinny chin chin…
1. The Bourne Legacy – $40.3 (first week)
It just got there. I think the $40 million is important for a film like this, the presumed opener to a new series. Just like The Amazing Spider-Man (but on a smaller level) it was imperative for the success of a new trilogy for the first new film to have a strong opening, and I’m sure that they’ll take a cool $40 million and run. HOWEVER, unlike the original trilogy, it is getting bad reviews. The first three scored high marks from critics (83%, 81%, and 94% respectively) and strong word of mouth kept the last two at the top of the Box Office for awhile. Legacy is suffering through a 53% currently, plus the dreaded negative review from MAN, I LOVE FILMS (coming later today, hopefully) which is roughly the same as a death wish (okay, maybe I’m overstating my importance a little…). This will mean it will be tough for the film to reach the heights of even the first Bourne film, which although it only opened to $27 million, it kept rolling all the way to $121 million by the end of its run. The bad word-of-mouth just keep this Jeremy Renner action reboot south of that mark, especially with a couple of similar genre films hot on its heels (see: Expendables 2, Premium Rush, Sparkle…. just kidding).
2. The Campaign – $27.4 (first week)
I was wrong, however, on this one. Kind of.
I thought this comedy, starring the over-the-hill-in-the-comedy-world Will Ferrell and Zach Galifanakis (or at least it seems that way – Ferrell has been Miss & Hit for awhile now and Zach is absolutely a one-trick pony as far as I’m concerned and should thank Todd Phillips for casting him in The Hangover and making him relevant), was going to bomb. The commercials/trailers weren’t funny (at least to me) and the only consideration I was giving it was whether or not I’ll rent it sometime in 2013 or just wait for its inevitable FX run in 2015. But the fan-bases for the two comics came out enough to give it a boost over the $20 million mark. For Ferrell, it was a lower opener than all of his recent wide-release efforts (Other Guys, Step Brothers, Blades of Glory) which just means that he’ll be opening for a great reception for Anchorman 2 to keep him really reliable, although the fact that co-stars Paul Rudd and Steve Carell are a bit bigger now then they were in 2004 will certainly help. For Zack, it’s a lower opening than Due Date, which paired him with Robert Downey, Jr. (with disappointing results) but higher than Dinner for Schmucks, which was also just awful. All it means, really, is that he will wait patiently for Hangover 3 to blow up when it releases (because it’s inevitable) and that will give him a couple extra years of relevancy. He won’t be able to carry his own film and his shtick is going to get old sooner rather than later. Or at least that’s what I predict…
3. The Dark Knight Rises – $19.5 ($390.1 total)
Batman finally got knocked off his pedestal, but adding another $20 million to its take is great for the trilogy finale. By the end of next weekend it should pass The Hunger Games‘ $407 million mark to hit #12 on the All-Time Domestic list. After that, it’s just whether or not it can get into the Top 10 (The Lion King sits at $423 million). I still feel like it’s going to do well through August, as nothing huge is on its way, save for The Expendables 2, which hits theaters this weekend. Either way, it’s been a solid ride for Nolan’s send-off to Bruce Wayne and Batman.
4. Hope Springs – $15.6 ($20.1 total – opened on Wednesday)
Who likes old people sex?!?! Apparently a good amount of people do, as the Meryl Streep/Tommy Lee Jones marriage counseling movie (co-starring Steve Carell) had a decent weekend to add to it’s Wednesday/Thursday take. It hit about the right marks, putting itself in the same position as similar movies, like It’s Complicated. It actually got the best reviews of the three new films opening this weekend and that might help its long-term success, although I’d say that the counter-programming angle works just fine. It’s audience is what it is and I can’t see a whole lot of 20-somethings making their way out to the theater to see Ol’ Droopy Ears and the Oscar Lady talk about their marriage. (Side note: I’m actually marginally interested in seeing this. I think it’s a solid rental for sure. I just can’t cast aside my pride enough to actually buy a ticket for it. Sorry.)
5.Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days -$8.2 ($30.6 total)
Normal drop. Normal kids movie. Normal inevitable sequel to come. You get the picture.
6. Total Recall – $8.1 ($44.2 total)
Remember what I said about Bourne and word-of-mouth? Might I present Exhibit A… Recall is suffering from some bad backlash (31% on RT) as it tumbled all the way down to #6 this weekend, even getting beat by the previously mentioned tweener flick. I think it will be lucky to get to the $60 million mark, which would still only place it at HALF of it’s budget. Ladies and gentlemen, we have an official bomb! Taylor Kitsch, you are not alone!
7. Ice Age: Continental Drift – $6.8 ($144.1 total)
Keeps on truckin’ forward in its fifth week, adding to that cume. The international total now exceeds $764 million. Wow.
8. Ted – $3.3 ($209.9 total)
While the last film is impressive for being at #7 in its fifth week, here’s Ted, sitting at #8 in it’s seventh week! It’s had a great run and it continues to push forward as it did indeed pass Wedding Crashers as the 4th highest R-rated comedy ever. While it won’t catch Beverly Hills Cop for third highest, it does have a great shot at getting both 300 and Saving Private Ryan to move into 7th All-Time for R-rated movies. Saving Private Ryan!! What a run for Ted.
9. Step Up: Revolution – $2.9 ($30.2 total)
Quickly dancing it’s way out of the Top 10.
(tie) 10. Amazing Spider-Man/The Watch – $2.2 ($255.5/31.4 total, respectively)
I added both in here to show the contrast between a film that is over-performing and a film that’s under-performing. Spidey’s reboot has hung on nicely (must be the webbing) and proved to be a great building block for another trilogy about the superhero. The Watch, on the other hand has completely dropped off and is sitting at 10th in only its third week. The Amazing Spider-Man is on week six. Big difference.
Next week sees the much anticipated release of The Expendables 2 (yes!!!) as well as two family friendly flicks, Paranorman (an animated, kinda Tim Burton-esque kid’s tale) and The Odd Life of Timothy Green, which opens Wednesday and stars Jennifer Garner and Joel Edgerton, or as he’s known to most of you, the other guy from Warrior who wasn’t Tom Hardy. The first Expendables opened to $34 million on its way to just over $100 million over its entire run. I feel like with the addition of the likes of Van Damme and Norris (screw you, Norris!) and the expansion of the roles of both Willis and Arnold, that it’s going to be a bigger opening for the action extravaganza. I can’t see why it won’t hit the coveted $40 million mark, much like Bourne before it. But, I’ve been wrong before…
Posting note… I will be out of town next weekend, so it’s unlikely that I’ll be able to provide my extensive services next weekend. I will do my best, however, to get something out there for you to read. I know you’ll all be glued to your computer screens!
Until next time!